Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Population projections

Population growth projections have recently emerged as a controversy. The Conference Board of Canada released a projection that the population of the province will drop to 482,000 in 2035.  Danny Williams declared the projection "bullshit" and city councillor Tom Hann also voiced criticism.

For fun, I decided to do my own projections using a very simple model under a few different scenarios.  In the models below, I assume:
  1. Every person dies on their 80th birthday.*
  2. There is an equal number of males and females in each age group.
* To be consistent I ignore everyone currently over 80 years old, so my population in 2013 is 507,000 instead of the actual 527,000.  This makes no difference to the projections, because 80 year olds don't have children.

Here is the chart.  The scenarios are explained below.




In the first scenario, I assume that fertility rate remains constant and equal to the average of the last five years. I also assume that net immigration is zero (both international and interprovincial).  I get this table:

Scenario 1

2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
2053
2057

Population under 80
507239
515643
517034
506214
487204
464429
440218
416780
397367
381402
0 to 4 
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
19815
18978
18345
17791
17117
5 to 9 
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
19815
18978
18345
17791
10 to 14 
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
19815
18978
18345
15 to 19
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
19815
18978
20 to 24 
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
19815
25 to 29 
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
20996
30 to 34 
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
22314
35 to 39 
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
23270
40 to 44 
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
23961
45 to 49 
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
24162
50 to 54 
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
25660
55 to 59 
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
26429
60 to 64 
40006
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
28830
65 to 69 
33134
40006
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
31400
70 to 74 
21879
33134
40006
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
30810
75 to 79 
15557
21879
33134
40006
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082
31524
80 to 84 
10402
15557
21879
33134
40006
42590
43189
41783
37204
33082

The population grows until a peak in year 2023 and then falls rapidly. In 2035, the population is between 487,000 and 465,000  - in line with the Conference Board estimate.

In scenario 2, I assume that our fertility rate increases to the Canadian average and remains constant, and that net immigration is zero.

Scenario 2

2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
2053
2057
507239
517704
521104
512312
495278
474394
452180
431155
414646
401814

There is very little change from scenario 1: the population peaks in 2023 and then starts to fall rapidly.  The population in 2035 is between 495,000 and 475,000 - in line with the Conference Board estimate.

In scenario 3,  I use current NL fertility rates, but assume immigration of 1000 twenty year olds per year (actually 5,000 every five years in lump sums).

Scenario 3

2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
2053
2057
507239
520643
527764
523890
512979
498728
483131
468473
458251
452129

Again, the population peaks in 2023, but it doesn't fall as rapidly afterwards.  In 2035, our population is between 512,979 and 498,728 which is above the Conference Board estimate.

In scenario 4, I use current fertility rates but assume immigration of 2000 twenty year olds per year (actually 10,000 every five years in lump sums).

Scenario 4


2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
2053
2057

507239
525643
538494
541566
538753
533027
526045
520168
519136
522857

In this scenario, population is basically flat.

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