tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36855482812484854472019-01-25T06:57:05.521-03:30Occupy Newfoundland and LabradorCommunications hub for Occupy Newfoundland and LabradorJonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07415555531504843017noreply@blogger.comBlogger273125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-79090854869545509752014-12-10T22:41:00.000-03:302014-12-13T12:42:51.947-03:30On the North Spur<br />I have just received a response to my access to information request concerning the North Spur stabilisation plan. The response to my request can be found <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yV3FtWkwwS2JRQTQ/view?usp=sharing">here</a> and <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yV3FtWkwwS2JRQTQ/view?usp=sharing">here</a>. <br /><br />The North Spur is a ridge that acts as a natural dam on the Churchill river and is an integral part of the Muskrat Falls project. The North Spur contains sensitive clay that can liquify under stress and cause landslides. <a href="http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-08-23/article-3843916/Landslides-near-dam-expected:-Nalcor/1">Some have alleged</a> that Nalcor has not done enough to ensure the stability of the North Spur, with potentially catastrophic consequences.<br /><br />An expert on quick clay landslides, Dr. Stig Bernander, recently gave <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/245204910/Bernander-LSPU-Presentation">two lectures in St. John's</a> outlining what he considers to be deficiencies in Nalcor's analysis of the North Spur stabilisation plan. In particular, he argued that a method of analysis that he developed for assessing the risk of "downhill progressive failure" ought to be performed.<br /><br />I attended both of Bernander's lectures and found them quite interesting, but also frustrating. Frustrating because Bernander based his criticisms solely on publicly available documents and appears not to have sought additional clarification from Nalcor. Frustrating also because Nalcor has chosen not to respond to Bernander's allegations by releasing the relevant documents.<br /><br />After Bernander's lectures, I submitted an access to information request to Nalcor for documents I hoped would clear up the matter. Specifically I asked for:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The review of "geotechnical assessments and dynamic studies" of the North Spur stabilization project by Dr. Serge Leroueil. This review is referred to by the Independent Engineer in the "<a href="http://muskratfalls.nalcorenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Lower-Churchill-Project-July-2014-IE-Site-Visit-issued-Oct-2014.pdf">Lower Churchill Project Site Visit Report</a>" dated October 20, 2014.</blockquote>Dr. Leroueil is an internationally renowned expert on sensitive soils and was specifically recognised as such by Dr. Bernander during his lecture. The response to my request can be found <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yV3FtWkwwS2JRQTQ/view?usp=sharing">here</a> and <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yV3FtWkwwS2JRQTQ/view?usp=sharing">here</a>. <br /><br />To summarise: I received two (minimally redacted) letters signed by Leroueil and addressed to the lead geotechnical engineer for the project, M. Regis Bouchard. The first letter, dated August 24th 2014, is a review of an engineering report on the North Spur Stabilization Works. Leroueil considered that report to be satisfactory. The key excerpt is the following:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">... I would add that the stabilization works increase the factor of safety from about 1.0 to about 1.6, which is very significant. Also, by doing that the maximum shear stresses in the soil mass have been significantly reduced, eliminating the possibility of progressive failure in the sensitive clays.</blockquote><div style="text-align: left;">The second letter, dated October 26th 2014, is written in French in a more informal tone, and deals specifically with kind of analysis Bernander insists should be performed. I am a bit less confident in my interpretation of this letter (partly because it is in French, partly because it deals with technical engineering issues), but Leroueil seems to argue that Bernander's method of analysis would be difficult to interpret and is unnecessary.<br /><br />On the other hand, the letter does confirm some points raised by Bernander in his lecture: that there is no established method for assessing stability against "downhill progressive failure" and that Bernander's preferred method of analysis has not been performed. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Here is my effort at translating the relevant parts of the second letter. The last sentence of point 2. seems out of place - I wonder if he meant to write 'top of the slope' rather than 'foot of the slope'. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><blockquote>Concerning the North Spur, my opinion is the following. </blockquote><blockquote>There is no established methodology for assessing stability against "downhill progressive failure". Bernander offers a very artisanal methodology that, to my knowledge, has only been used for the analysis of existing fractures, for which the results were known in advance. Ariane Locat has adapted this method for "uphill progressive failures" which has been used to understand two spreads in sensitive clays. In my view, starting to do these calculations will lead to lots of pitfalls and questions. </blockquote><blockquote>On the other hand, the method of analysis consists of defining the initial shear stress along a potential failure surface, probably approximately horizontal and passing through the foot of the slope in our case. This shear stress is maximum at virtually the crest of the slope. If a disturbance increases the shear stress in some location up to the shear strength of the soil, then a progressive failure can begin and eventually lead to a global rupture. There are two important things in what I just said : </blockquote><blockquote>1. <i>The initial shear stress</i>. If you show that you have improved the stability of the slope (higher F), it means that you have reduced your initial shear stress and you move away from the shear strength of the soil. </blockquote><blockquote>2. <i>Disturbance that can locally increase the shear stress.</i> This disturbance may come from the bottom or top. In Quebec, the disturbance is usually an erosion or a small break at the foot of the slope. But as you have protected your foot slope, you have removed the possibility of disturbance at the foot of the slope. The disturbance may also come from the top, like the pile shaft sinking in the case of Surte studied by Bernander. And there, it must be shown that you have taken all precautions to prevent all disruption at the foot of the slope. </blockquote><blockquote>If you improve your stability, thus reducing the possibility of progressive failure compared to what it was, and if you prevent any disturbance, you can not have progressive failure. I think this is how one must address the problem.</blockquote><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-14479539989984419272014-07-28T18:59:00.001-02:302014-07-30T08:29:29.188-02:30An $8 increase? Try $27.The good news: Nalcor finally came through with some concrete numbers on the new rate projection.<br /><br /> The bad news: they are worse than previously reported.<br /><br />Here is the updated rate projections sent to me by a Nalcor representative (a member of the Nalcor "social media team"). <br /><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n5CK8mbJvGM/U9atgCrJmPI/AAAAAAAAAoc/13AD8lvaj4c/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-28+at+17.34.56.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n5CK8mbJvGM/U9atgCrJmPI/AAAAAAAAAoc/13AD8lvaj4c/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-28+at+17.34.56.png" height="325" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click image to embiggen</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This table shows that the new projections are 0.5 cents higher than DG3 in 2018 and 1.8 cents higher in 2030. This increases the projected average monthly consumer bill by $8 in 2018 rising to $27 in 2030.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Caution is always warranted when comparing dollar values across time. However I believe this comparison is valid for the following reasons. (Update: I have now received confirmation from Nalcor that both projections are in nominal prices and thus <u>are directly comparable</u>. The argument appearing in italics below is no longer important.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>1) In my email to Nalcor (reproduced below) I specifically asked to be provided with updated projections that were directly comparable to the DG3 estimates. The table I was sent is also presented in a way that suggests the numbers are meant to be compared.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>2) If we assume that the June 2014 projection is not corrected for inflation but the DG3 figures are, then the table above would say that the new projection is lower in real terms than the DG3 figure, which doesn't make any sense.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>3) The table explains the on-first-hearing-<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DxJ9g8dzyA&t=12m50s">nonsensical remarks made by Ed Martin</a> at the press conference when the new cost estimates were released: </i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"When Muskrat Falls comes into service that's (a monthly power bill increase of) on average about 8 dollar per month to maybe as high as 28 dollars per month - depending on your usage factor - over what was projected at sanction for monthly electricity rates. Once again that depends - the range depends on how much electricity the person uses."</i></blockquote><i><br /></i><i>I believe that Martin explained this incorrectly. It does not make sense to offer such a wide range as an average, but it does make sense to say that the average bill increase varies between $8 and $28 over the projected time period. This interpretation is in keeping with <a href="http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/Letter-to-the-editor/2014-07-12/article-3796587/Muskrat-Falls-remains-the-best-option/1">Martin's letter to the Telegram</a> which (misleadingly) only offers a direct comparison to DG3 for 2018. </i><br /><br />Press reports from the CBC (<a href="https://twitter.com/CochraneCBCNL/status/482207285058760704">here</a> and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-falls-costs-rise-to-almost-7b-1.2688582">here</a>) only provide the $8 figure and the <a href="http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-06-27/article-3778428/Muskrat-Falls-costs-jump-by-$800M/1">Telegram report</a> does not include any rate projection so this story has not been properly explained to the public. <br /><br />It is interesting to compare the new projections with the DG3 projections for the isolated island option.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2CiuNikCsA4/U9a6cMyR3kI/AAAAAAAAAoo/I9lrvQbI2rc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-28+at+18.32.03.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2CiuNikCsA4/U9a6cMyR3kI/AAAAAAAAAos/Grx3fGA1tlY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-28+at+18.32.03.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2CiuNikCsA4/U9a6cMyR3kI/AAAAAAAAAos/Grx3fGA1tlY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-28+at+18.32.03.png" height="257" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click image to embiggen</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The DG3 Isolated Electricity Rate is now lower than the new Interconnected Rate until 2025, after which it is higher. Muskrat Falls is no longer a clear winner over this time frame, though it probably remains the cheaper option post-2030.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Email exchange reproduced below:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Sent: July 22 </div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">"Hello,</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">I understand that a response to my earlier question is under preparation. Here is the question for your convenience:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">"I understand that Nalcor is estimating that the new cost estimates will</div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: start;">result in a $8 higher monthly power bill for the "average" customer. I</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: start;">would like to see the analysis that derived the $8 figure from the new</span><br /><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">cost estimates. Is that possible?"</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">Since posing this question there have been some other public statements from Nalcor that have sown confusion among the public. A good example is Ed Martin's letter to the Telegram that was not careful to explain he is using nominal price estimates. This led to a blog post by Des Sullivan [note: actually written by JM] that has further muddied the waters:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.ca/2014/07/the-continued-beclouding-of-electricity.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://unclegnarley.blogspot.<wbr></wbr>ca/2014/07/the-continued-<wbr></wbr>beclouding-of-electricity.html</a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">I think it would be a big help if - in addition to answering the question above - Nalcor released an update of estimated electricity rates in a form directly comparable to this chart:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><a href="http://www.powerinourhands.ca/pdf/Electricity_Rates.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://www.powerinourhands.ca/<wbr></wbr>pdf/Electricity_Rates.pdf</a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">thank you,</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">Tom Baird"</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; text-align: left;">Recieved: July 28 </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">" Thank you Mr. Baird for another question.</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">As requested, we've updated the Electricity Rates and Average Monthly Island Residential information based on the revised capital cost update for the Muskrat Falls Project that was released in June 2014.</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">In our reply to your previous question on July 24, 2014, we noted that forecast electricity bills include all costs of generation, transmission, distribution, capital, operating, maintenance and sustaining capital, including fuel, interest and financing costs, plus Newfoundland Power costs. All of these items are included in the projected rates. Prior to interconnection Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro anticipates significant capital expenditures to address load growth including a new gas turbine in 2014 and a new transmission line from Bay d'Espoir to Western Avalon in 2017. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">The rate projection information below is from 2018 (year Muskrat Falls Project will be included in island electricity rates) to 2030. The information that was prepared in October 2012 at Decision Gate 3 used 2017 as a starting reference point for Muskrat Falls. The information at Decision Gate 3 also included rate projections for the Isolated Island option. Since the Muskrat Falls Project (Interconnected Island) was sanction in December 2012 there is no longer an Isolated Island option for 2018 and beyond as the system will be interconnected with power from Muskrat Falls. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">At the time of the release of the capital cost update for the Muskrat Falls Project at the end of June 2014, Nalcor stated that the change in the electricity rates are expected to be in the range of about 7% to the average homeowner on the island using electric heat. This is for the 10-year period from 2014 to 2023. It is anticipated that when Muskrat Falls is fully operational and our province is powered almost exclusively by renewable energy sources, rates will stabilize for customers, increasing on average around one to two per cent per year.</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">Attached is the updated chart as requested. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">This response will also be posted on the Muskrat Fall Project website shortly.</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">Regards</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(name omitted)</span><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> "</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-5166259266245637252014-07-24T12:16:00.001-02:302014-07-24T12:20:09.397-02:30Response from Nalcor<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">18 days ago I wrote to Nalcor with this question:</div><blockquote class="tr_bq">"<span style="font-family: Helvetica;">I understand that Nalcor is estimating that the new cost estimates will </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: Helvetica;">result in a $8 higher monthly power bill for the "average" customer. I </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: Helvetica;">would like to see the analysis that derived the $8 figure from the </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">new cost estimates. Is that possible?</span>"</blockquote><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I received the following reply today.</div><div class="" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jli9yzsSaM8/U9EbWIdznEI/AAAAAAAAAoM/3nFMFbhPocA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-24+at+12.11.59+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jli9yzsSaM8/U9EbWIdznEI/AAAAAAAAAoM/3nFMFbhPocA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-07-24+at+12.11.59+PM.png" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both;"><br /></div>The email is a bit short on details. I would have liked to see how the burden is spread between residential users vs. industrial users, what the projected customer rate is in future years, and how the various parameters (projected fuel cost, interest rates, etc.) have changed since DG3. I think this email clarifies matters a little bit though. <br /><div class="" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="" style="clear: both;">One interesting observation: they seem to assume that the higher price will have no effect on average consumption. Do they take price elasticity into account in their long term forecasts?</div><div><br /></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-37470964001716110112014-05-30T01:58:00.000-02:302014-05-30T02:03:59.048-02:30On the social position of beggars<div class="tr_bq"><br /></div><pre><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An excerpt from George Orwell's "<a href="http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks01/0100171.txt">Down and Out in Paris and London</a>".</span></pre><pre><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></pre><pre></pre><blockquote><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is worth saying something about the social position of beggars, for </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">when one has consorted with them, and found that they are ordinary human </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">beings, one cannot help being struck by the curious attitude that society </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">takes towards them. People seem to feel that there is some essential </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">difference between beggars and ordinary 'working' men. They are a race </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">apart--outcasts, like criminals and prostitutes. Working men 'work', </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">beggars do not 'work'; they are parasites, worthless in their very nature. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is taken for granted that a beggar does not 'earn' his living, as a </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">bricklayer or a literary critic 'earns' his. He is a mere social </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">excrescence, tolerated because we live in a humane age, but essentially </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">despicable.</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet if one looks closely one sees that there is no essential </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">difference between a beggar's livelihood and that of numberless respectable </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">people. Beggars do not work, it is said; but, then, what is work? A navvy </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">works by swinging a pick. An accountant works by adding up figures. A </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">beggar works by standing out of doors in all weathers and getting varicose </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">veins, chronic bronchitis, etc. It is a trade like any other; quite </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">useless, of course--but, then, many reputable trades are quite useless. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And as a social type a beggar compares well with scores of others. He is </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">honest compared with the sellers of most patent medicines, high-minded </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">compared with a Sunday newspaper proprietor, amiable compared with a </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">hire-purchase tout--in short, a parasite, but a fairly harmless parasite. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He seldom extracts more than a bare living from the community, and, what </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">should justify him according to our ethical ideas, he pays for it over and </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">over in suffering. I do not think there is anything about a beggar that </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">sets him in a different class from other people, or gives most modern men </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the right to despise him.</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then the question arises, Why are beggars despised?--for they are </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">despised, universally. I believe it is for the simple reason that they fail </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">to earn a decent living. In practice nobody cares whether work is useful or </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">useless, productive or parasitic; the sole thing demanded is that it shall </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">be profitable. In all the modern talk about energy, efficiency, social </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">service and the rest of it, what meaning is there except 'Get money, get it </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">legally, and get a lot of it'? Money has become the grand test of virtue. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By this test beggars fail, and for this they are despised. If one could </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">earn even ten pounds a week at begging, it would become a respectable </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">profession immediately. A beggar, looked at realistically, is simply a </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">businessman, getting his living, like other businessmen, in the way that </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">comes to hand. He has not, more than most modern people, sold his honour; he </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">has merely made the mistake of choosing a trade at which it is impossible </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">to grow rich.</span></blockquote>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-10628420089097452282014-05-13T19:19:00.002-02:302014-09-22T09:56:24.468-02:30Some documents relating to the Humber Valley Paving scandalI have collected below some documents related to the Humber Valley Paving scandal for the convenience of those following the controversy.<br /><div><br />Updated: An <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yOXRqLU5aMWIwRDA/edit?usp=sharing">ATIPP request</a> outlining communications between Gene Coleman and Nick McGrath around the time of the deal.<br /><br /><br /></div><div>The paving contract. (<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yWFNXRVMwbVUzNnM/edit">pdf</a>)</div><div><br /></div><div>The bond contracts and tender book. (<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yMHM4WEVBRFVkMUU/edit">pdf</a>) One tidbit that hasn't been reported in the media is that the bonding company was the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Guarantee_Company_of_North_America">Guarantee Company of North America</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>The letter from Transportation and Works (T&W) releasing HVP from the bonds. (<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9ySlZnRmpBN3V3akE/edit">pdf</a>)</div><div><br /></div><div>A list of all tenders since 1996 that were awarded to HVP. (<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qMmQRjuK9yd05UYVFNVUpTQ0k">link</a>)</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><br /><br /></div><div>Here is a email sent to me from the director of comms at T&W in response to my request for all information sent to the Telegram about HVP in recent weeks.</div><div><br /></div><div>"<span style="font-family: Helvetica;">Hello,</span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: Helvetica;"><br />Attached/enclosed is the requested information.<br /><br />1) History of Relationship with Humber Valley Paving<br />The Department of Transportation and Works has had a long-standing relationship with Humber Valley Paving that dates back to 1996. In 2007, the company changed ownership and was purchased by a number of investors, which included Mr. Frank Coleman. It is our understanding that Mr. Coleman has recently sold his shares and is no longer a shareholder.<br /><br />Attached is a complete listing of all projects where Humber Valley Paving was the successful proponent. In all cases a public tendering process was used and the company was the lowest compliant bidder.<br /><br />For your reference, there has been approximately $1.2 billion invested in highway/road improvement initiatives since 2007.<br /><br /><br />2) Background Information<br />Enclosed is additional information on the scope of work completed by Humber Valley Paving, as well as background information on the bond.<br /><br />Under the contract to construct and pave 80 kilometers of highway between Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Churchill Falls, 60 per cent of the work was completed. The company was only paid for the work completed. They were not paid for work remaining to be done.<br /><br />Included in the $11.8 million paid to Humber Valley Paving is the following:<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>106,000 tonnes of “Class A” gravel out of a total of 146,000 tonnes<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>30,000 tonnes of “Class A” was manufactured and ready to place<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>444,000 tonnes of “Class B” gravel out of a total of 508,000 tonnes<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>40,000 tonnes of “Class B” was manufactured and ready to place<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>15,900 tonnes of asphalt out of a total of 73,700 tonnes<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>935 tonnes of liquid asphalt out of a total of 4500 tonnes<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>3500 meters of guide rail, which exceeded the estimated 3300 meters<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5,000 flag person hours out of a total of 10,000 hours<br />-<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>12,800 meters of guide rail adjustment out of 14,000 meters<br /><br />Bonds<br /><br />There was no money to refund. Bonds are in essence an insurance policy and are called when a contractor fails to meet the requirements of the contract – most often due to a bankruptcy. In order to call on a bond, the contractor would have to be declared in default of the contract. That said, there is no guarantee that the Provincial Government would recover the entire amount of the bonds that are in place. Also, the Provincial Government is still responsible for all costs up to the value of the original contract.<br /><br />The Provincial Government could have called the bonds. If we had, project timelines and the viability of the company may have been jeopardized. It would have also likely led to the loss of direct and indirect jobs and potentially contribute to weakening industry and taking a competitor out of the provincial marketplace.<br /><br />Instead, the Provincial Government opted to relieve Humber Valley Paving of its remaining obligations and re-tender the work as part of another major tender involving 80 kilometers of paving between Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Cartwright Junction. By taking this approach, we are ensuring a competitive bid process and the project being completed on time and on budget.<br /><br />The original tender scheduled for the completion of this road work for July 31, 2014 and that target is now August 31, 2014.<br />"</span><br /><div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: Helvetica; width: 988px;"><colgroup><col width="691"></col><col width="130"></col><col width="167"></col></colgroup><tbody><tr height="21"><td class="xl70" height="21" width="691"><br /></td><td class="xl71"></td><td align="right" class="xl72" x:num="1.9706251851E8">$197,062,518.51</td></tr></tbody></table></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-15740448151407012592014-05-06T15:59:00.001-02:302014-05-06T22:44:23.371-02:30HVP deal may have violated the Lobbyist Registration ActBrad Cabana made an important observation <a href="https://twitter.com/BradCabana/status/463705985748836352">on Twitter today</a>. It appears that Gene Coleman and Nick McGrath were in violation of the "<a href="http://assembly.nl.ca/Legislation/sr/statutes/l24-1.htm">Lobbyist Registration Act</a>" when the <a href="http://occupynl.ca/2014/05/the-frank-colemanhumber-valley-paving.html">controversial deal</a> with Humber Valley Paving was being negotiated. Here are the relevant parts of the Act:<br /><br /><blockquote> 2. (c) (xvi) In this Act, "lobby " means to communicate with a public-office holder for remuneration or other gain, reward or benefit, in an attempt to influence public-office holders relating to the terms of a contract, the choice of a contractor, or the administration, implementation or enforcement of a contract.<br /><br /><span style="color: #292f33; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';">2. (f) (i) </span>"public-office holder" includes a member or an officer of the House of Assembly</blockquote><blockquote>6.<b> </b>(1)<b> </b> In this section, </blockquote><blockquote>(a) "employee " includes an officer who is compensated for the performance of his or her duties; </blockquote><blockquote>(b) "in-house lobbyist" means a person who is employed by an organization </blockquote><blockquote>(ii) a part of whose duties as an employee is to lobby on behalf of that organization if the employee's duties to lobby together with the duties of other employees to lobby would constitute 20 % of time at work of one full time employee, assessed in a 3 month period, were those duties to lobby to be performed by only one employee; </blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">19. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">A consultant lobbyist or in-house lobbyist shall not lobby a public-office holder unless that person is registered in the registry of lobbyists with respect to those lobbying activities.</span> </blockquote><br />Since McGrath has publicly admitted to verbally discussing the termination of the contract with Coleman, this clearly fits the definition of "lobbying". I guess it is possible that HVP does so little lobbying that it wouldn't count as 20% of the time of one employee, but that seems unlikely. I have not been able to check the registry of lobbyists myself (my browser is incompatible) but I am told that Coleman does not appear.<br /><br />Here are the penalties. It looks as though HVP might be forced to pay their bond penalty after all (see (6)).<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">31. </span> <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">(1)</span><b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;"> </b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;"> Every person who fails to comply with a provision of this Act is guilty of an offence.</span> </blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">(5)</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; text-align: left;">A person who is guilty of an offence under this section is liable on summary conviction, for a first offence, to a fine of not more than $25,000 and, for a second or subsequent offence, to a fine of not more than $100,000.</span> </blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span lang="EN-CA">(6) In addition to the penalty referred to in subsection (5), the court may, where a person is guilty of an offence under this section, confiscate the proceeds of lobbying which were improperly obtained and direct that those proceeds be paid into the Consolidated Revenue Fund.</span></blockquote><br /><div><span lang="EN-CA"><br /></span></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-63970987277982277652014-05-02T14:10:00.002-02:302014-06-16T15:37:16.505-02:30The Frank Coleman/Humber Valley Paving scandal - a timeline of events.A few days ago, Peter Cowan of CBC <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-not-involved-in-highway-contract-cancellation-1.2627056">broke a story</a> about how Humber Valley Paving - a company closely linked to future Premier Frank Coleman - was allowed to cancel a multi-million dollar contract to pave a section of the Trans-Labrador Highway without paying any penalty. I have prepared below a timeline of events linked to this story. We will continue to update as more details of this story emerge.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">January 22: Dunderdale steps down as Premier.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span data-reactid=".3v.1:3:1:$comment631119233624009_631122000290399:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.0:$comment-body.0.$end:0:$8:0" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">February 10: Danny Williams publicly opposes Bill Barry for PC leader and mischaracterises the contents of letter Barry sent to caucus. </span></span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">(<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/danny-williams-crosses-bill-barry-off-list-for-tory-leader-1.2531214">link</a>)</span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">.</span><br /><br />February 14: Rumours circulate that Coleman is being courted by Williams to become PC leader. (<a href="http://unclegnarley.blogspot.ca/2014/02/all-hail-premier-frank-coleman.html">link</a>)<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span data-reactid=".3v.1:3:1:$comment631119233624009_631122000290399:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.0:$comment-body.0.$end:0:$12:0" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">February 14: Coleman sells HVP, steps down as CEO </span></span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">(<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-sold-paving-company-with-bills-left-unpaid-1.2623414">link</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeEG9OA-rUE&list=UUsV80Q2uSYf9P5CKb_O-mkQ">link</a>)</span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span data-reactid=".3v.1:3:1:$comment631119233624009_631122000290399:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.0:$comment-body.0.$end:0:$16:0" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">March 10: Coleman steps down as a director of HVP </span></span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">(<a href="http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-04-23/article-3697871/Coleman-companies-in-transition/1">link</a>)</span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">March 13: HVP requests the termination of a $19M paving contract in Labrador (</span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-not-involved-in-highway-contract-cancellation-1.2627056" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">). ( it has now </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;">emerged that Gene Coleman - Frank's son - negotiated the deal, and that negotiations were done verbally and left no paper trail. (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-too-much-being-made-of-paving-contract-1.2633158">link</a>, <a href="http://www.assembly.nl.ca/business/hansard/ga47session3/14-05-05.html">link</a>)</span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px;">). This appears to be in violation of the <a href="http://assembly.nl.ca/Legislation/sr/statutes/l24-1.htm">Lobbyist Registration Act</a>. </span></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">March 13 evening (the same day!): Coleman announces he will enter the PC leadership race. Shortly after this announcement, both Steve Kent and Shawn Skinner announce they will not run. (</span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/barry-coleman-and-bennett-in-pc-leadership-race-1.2572306" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">)</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">March 14 noon: Nominations close for PC leadership race. Commentators widely agree that Coleman is almost certain to win the leadership and hence to become the next Premier.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">March 21: The request to cancel the contract is granted. HVP gets paid $12M for road preparations and paving only 20km out of the 80km of what was required and have both their $9.5M performance bond and $9.5M labour/materials bond returned without any penalty. At this time three members of Coleman family, including his son Gene, were directors of the company and had an ownership stake in the company. (</span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-not-involved-in-highway-contract-cancellation-1.2627056" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/BairdTom/status/462230417895342080" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">). It was later revealed the Frank Coleman would have been personally liable to the bonding agency if the bonds had been pulled (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-admits-he-could-have-been-on-the-paving-hook-1.2652355">link</a>). This </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;">contradicts earlier statements by Coleman:</span></span><br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;">"</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; white-space: pre-wrap;">No, I did not benefit personally from this whatsoever. </span><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; white-space: pre-wrap;">It is incomprehensible to me that somebody could infer that I benefitted personally from this.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px;">"(<a href="https://twitter.com/TeleFitz/status/470973320196673537">link</a>)</span></blockquote><br />April 20: The 30 day period for sub-contractors to file a "mechanics lien" against HVP expires. Sub-contractors owed money who failed to file a lien will henceforth be forced to sue HVP in court. (<a href="http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-05-14/article-3724471/Humber-Valley-Paving-subcontractors-left-in-the-lurch:-Liberals/1?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">link</a>)<br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">April 25: HVP shareholders release letter saying that "Mr. Frank Coleman and/ or members of his immediate family have no further interest in the ownership structure of Humber Group." (</span><a href="http://www.hvp.ca/docs/April25.pdf" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">)</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">As of April 31: Frank's relatives (grand children, nephews?), Michael and Robert Coleman are the sole directors of HVP. His son, Gene Coleman, is rumoured to have stepped down on April 28th. (</span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/pc.government.must.go/photos/a.468722303197037.1073741829.468478139888120/631243660278233/?type=1&theater" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">link</a><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">)</span><br /><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 14px;">June 11: McGrath holds a press conference announcing the result of the retendering of the HVP contract. McGrath claims that accounting for changes in project specs, cost to the taxpayers have risen by $1.5M. Ignoring specs, the cost has risen more than $2.5M. (<a href="http://ntv.ca/unfinished-humber-valley-paving-job-goes-to-pavex-for-extra-1-5-million/">link</a>)</span></span><br /><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 14px;">June 16: Frank Coleman quits the leadership "race" due to unspecified family issues. (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/frank-coleman-nixes-move-to-politics-premier-1.2677079">link</a>)</span></span><br /><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><br /></span>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-34535320699402280672014-03-02T18:40:00.001-03:302014-03-02T18:40:36.336-03:30A walking trail for Margaret's Place<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Margaret's Place has emerged as a high density residential area; over a hundred condo units and dozens of row houses have been built on this central cul-de-sac in recent years, with another <a href="http://www.kingsburycondos.com/">44 unit condo in the works</a> for Fall 2014. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">City councillors interested in improving walkability in the city should consider putting one or two short walking trails between Margaret's Place and Bonaventure Avenue. I've indicated two possible routes below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dAjAkJ9RM3k/UxObWYY-xAI/AAAAAAAAAl8/FXC_c66sS-A/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+5.22.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dAjAkJ9RM3k/UxObWYY-xAI/AAAAAAAAAl8/FXC_c66sS-A/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+5.22.54+PM.png" height="323" width="400" /></a></div><br />This would link these units directly the neighbourhood schools (Holy Heart, Brother Rice, Bonaventure), and the number 15 bus route leading to MUN/HSC and Quidi Vidi. It would also connect with an existing trail system leading to Churchill Square and provide a pedestrian short cut between Georgetown and Rabbittown.<br /><br />These routes are already being used by walkers, even though this means clambering over snowbanks. Here are a few pictures of what pedestrians have to contend with to use these shortcuts.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aljy7whWbHI/UxOm-UGwvCI/AAAAAAAAAmM/Et28kAuY-PY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.16.52+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aljy7whWbHI/UxOm-UGwvCI/AAAAAAAAAmM/Et28kAuY-PY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.16.52+PM.png" height="298" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nsYUbXUaAsY/UxOnzLHxlHI/AAAAAAAAAmo/m8zcScMqgdk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.18.08+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nsYUbXUaAsY/UxOnzLHxlHI/AAAAAAAAAmo/m8zcScMqgdk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.18.08+PM.png" height="400" width="301" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6pzMNCg7ox4/UxOn23Tpe-I/AAAAAAAAAmw/Kb01l7nN-NA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.18.34+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6pzMNCg7ox4/UxOn23Tpe-I/AAAAAAAAAmw/Kb01l7nN-NA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.18.34+PM.png" height="400" width="295" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DKDYl4PQ7dc/UxOn8XQHwsI/AAAAAAAAAnA/0i-B09cyOrk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.19.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DKDYl4PQ7dc/UxOn8XQHwsI/AAAAAAAAAnA/0i-B09cyOrk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.19.15+PM.png" height="337" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xYu8hfPTYAQ/UxOn_vStlSI/AAAAAAAAAnI/DTCpJqeF8WY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.20.25+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xYu8hfPTYAQ/UxOn_vStlSI/AAAAAAAAAnI/DTCpJqeF8WY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-02+at+6.20.25+PM.png" height="301" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-75807007079560697822014-02-12T19:12:00.003-03:302014-03-05T11:26:55.427-03:30Population projectionsPopulation growth projections have recently emerged as a controversy. The Conference Board of Canada released a projection that the population of the province will drop to <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">482,000</span> in 2035. Danny Williams declared the projection "bullshit" and city councillor Tom Hann also voiced criticism.<br /><br />For fun, I decided to do my own projections using a very simple model under a few different scenarios. In the models below, I assume:<br /><ol><li>Every person dies on their 80th birthday.*</li><li>There is an equal number of males and females in each age group.</li></ol>* To be consistent I ignore everyone currently over 80 years old, so my population in 2013 is 507,000 instead of the actual 527,000. This makes no difference to the projections, because 80 year olds don't have children.<br /><br />Here is the chart. The scenarios are explained below.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6tOVJrkVDaE/Uvv0UFeIDPI/AAAAAAAAAlo/7ZQ6ctwfTHI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-12+at+6.52.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6tOVJrkVDaE/Uvv0UFeIDPI/AAAAAAAAAlo/7ZQ6ctwfTHI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-02-12+at+6.52.15+PM.png" /></a></div><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />In the first scenario, I assume that fertility rate remains constant and equal to the average of the last five years. I also assume that net immigration is zero (both international and interprovincial). I get this table:<br /><br />Scenario 1<br /><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2013</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2018</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2023</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2028</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2033</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2038</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2043</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2048</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2053</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2057</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><br /></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Population under 80</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">507239</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">515643</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">517034</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">506214</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">487204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">464429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">440218</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">416780</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">397367</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">381402</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">0 to 4 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">19815</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18978</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18345</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">17791</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">17117</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">5 to 9 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">19815</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18978</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18345</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">17791</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">10 to 14 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">19815</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18978</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18345</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">15 to 19</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">19815</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">18978</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20 to 24 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">19815</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25 to 29 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">20996</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30 to 34 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">22314</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">35 to 39 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23270</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40 to 44 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">23961</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">45 to 49 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">24162</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">50 to 54 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">25660</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">55 to 59 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">26429</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">60 to 64 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40006</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">28830</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">65 to 69 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33134</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40006</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31400</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">70 to 74 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">21879</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33134</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40006</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">30810</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">75 to 79 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">15557</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">21879</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33134</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40006</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">31524</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">80 to 84 </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">10402</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">15557</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">21879</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33134</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40006</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42590</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43189</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41783</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">37204</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">33082</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The population grows until a peak in year 2023 and then falls rapidly. In 2035, the population is between 487,000 and 465,000 - in line with the Conference Board estimate.</span></div><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In scenario 2, I assume that our fertility rate increases to the Canadian average and remains constant, and that net immigration is zero.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Scenario 2</span></div><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2013</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2018</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2023</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2028</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2033</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2038</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2043</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2048</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2053</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2057</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">507239</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">517704</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">521104</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">512312</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">495278</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">474394</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">452180</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">431155</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">414646</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">401814</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is very little change from scenario 1: the population peaks in 2023 and then starts to fall rapidly. The population in 2035 is between 495,000 and 475,000 - in line with the Conference Board estimate.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">In scenario 3, I use current NL fertility rates, but assume immigration of 1000 twenty year olds per year (actually 5,000 every five years in lump sums).</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>Scenario 3<br /><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2013</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2018</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2023</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2028</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2033</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2038</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2043</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2048</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2053</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2057</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">507239</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">520643</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">527764</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">523890</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">512979</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">498728</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">483131</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">468473</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">458251</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">452129</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">Again, the population peaks in 2023, but it doesn't fall as rapidly afterwards. In 2035, our population is between 512,979 and 498,728 which is above the Conference Board estimate. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">In scenario 4, I use current fertility rates but assume immigration of 2000 twenty year olds per year (actually 10,000 every five years in lump sums).</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Scenario 4</span><br /><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2013</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2018</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2023</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2028</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2033</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2038</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2043</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2048</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2053</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">2057</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><br /></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">507239</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">525643</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">538494</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">541566</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">538753</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">533027</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">526045</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">520168</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">519136</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 67.8px;" valign="top"><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">522857</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="min-height: 14px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In this scenario, population is basically flat.</span></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-82703620241244342672013-09-27T23:12:00.000-02:302013-09-27T23:12:09.694-02:30Peace, Consciousness, Community Weekend in St. John'sCheck out this call out for an event happening this weekend, September 28-29.<br /><br />–-<br /><br /><div class="p1"><span class="s1">We are human: we all feel, we all have real beating hearts, we all need nourishment, we all need care, we all matter. On what grounds do any of us dare to presume who is “worthy” and who is not? And once we've recognized each others' intrinsic value, how can we continue to support an economic system that thrives on exploitation and inequality? And how can we not question a political system that calls itself 'democracy' and yet is so entwined with such inhumane economics?<br /></span></div><div class="p1">We know our lives are fundamentally interconnected with other humans and with the natural world that generously serves as our life support system. How can we not see the insanity in continuing to harm each other and our planet?<br /></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1">The few have constructed many systems, structures & institutions, and now we, the many, are awakening to collectively reclaim them and re-imagine them in the spirit of basic human decency.</span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1">We are a beautiful multitude, with wide-ranging concerns, united in our compassion, our creativity, our commitment, and our spirit of cooperation.<br /></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1">This movement, this moment, is a call to conscience. WE KNOW BETTER, so how can we not DO better? With what excuses can we continue with such unfairness? <br /></span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1">We speak from the heart and we celebrate our collective courage, imagination, and power! We are truly all in this together. </span></div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">In that spirit, all are invited to participate this weekend:</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">EVENT DETAILS</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2"><i>Peace, Consciousness, Community Weekend in St. John's</i></div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">Using our personal & collective wisdom (empathy + reason ;) to explore & enact truly new possibilities for 'Life on Earth' ~ from local to global levels! </div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2"><b>Saturday Sept 28 & Sunday Sept 29</b>, </div><div class="p2"><b>10am</b>-ish <b>to 8pm</b>-ish each day</div><div class="p2"><b>War Memorial / Harbourside Park green spaces</b></div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p4"><i>A relaxed space for human-to-human conversations about things that matter.</i></div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">A place for citizens to engage ideas, to use our IMAGINATIONS, to meet others who care, to get meaningful actions on-the-go, & so much more.... </div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">Kids & youth very, very welcome!</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">(If you want, bring along: blankets to sit on, paper or white boards to write on, sidewalk chalk, musical instruments... you get the idea ;)</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">The time is NOW! Everything is a-changing... Look forward to seeing you there. Please spread the word far & wide!</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><div class="p2">- 30 -</div><div class="p3"><br /></div><br /><div class="p2">Contact: Krista Koch, <a href="mailto:chorusofstones@gmail.com"><span class="s2">chorusofstones@gmail.com</span></a> (look for me at the event ~tall, blonde, smiling! ;)</div>Erikanoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-42958456498282509292013-09-16T07:13:00.000-02:302013-09-16T08:47:12.521-02:30St. John's City Council candidates openness to electoral reform<br /><div>One of the questions on the <a href="http://theindependent.ca/2013/09/09/who-will-lead-st-johns/">Independent survey of municipal candidates</a> concerned electoral reform. Candidates seemed fairly open to the idea - at least more open than I anticipated. I have tried to classify their answers into those supportive, those open to the idea, and those who are happy with the status quo.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><b>Question:</b> The City of Toronto is planning to move to a ranked ballot system for municipal elections. This system reduces the problem of vote splitting in races with more than two candidates. Would you support a similar reform in St. John’s? Would you support some other kind of reform? </div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><i><b>Supportive</b></i></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Sherwin Flight: </b>I would support some kind of reform, although exactly what that would be I am unsure of at this point. I believe this would require significant public consultations before determining the best approach to take.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Sandy Hickman: </b>Toronto has a full ward system. This makes sense in ward and I would fully support for St. John’s. however, at large is a different situation and I like the current system. You can vote for four people or as few as you want. I like that flexibility. But I have always been open to new ideas. I thought the vote by mail was great idea when it came along but now feel we are behind the times in not having online voting (again this is held up by the government).</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Lorne Loder:</b> I would support electoral reform efforts, such as moving to a ranked ballot system, which would result in a council that better represents the residents. The first past the post system has been proven to produce a democratic deficit.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Fred Winsor: </b>I believe we should explore other voting options.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Walter Harding: </b>I actually would support that system. I feel a change is as good as a rest and this might entice otherwise apathetic voters to once again join the democratic process. I am saddened to see almost half of the ballots go in the trash during a municipal election as it costs hundreds of thousands of tax payers dollars to put off an election and I have worked hard over the past year to try and get 60 percent of voters to actually vote. An informed voter has my complete respect.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"></div><div style="min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><b>Scott Fitzgerald: </b>I would support this type of reform. I would also support term limits. In my opinion, once a councillor serves two terms in one position they should have to run for something else. For example, after two terms as a ward councillor you could run at-large or for Deputy Mayor or Mayor. This would encourage new people to get involved in the political process.<br /><br /><b>Jennifer McCreath:</b> I am always looking for ways to improve democracy. I would be open to looking at any possible electoral reform, that would promote and increase voters turnout and produce election results that best reflect what the electorate wants.<br /><br /><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><b><i>Open to the idea</i></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Sheilagh O’Leary:</b> Electoral reform, in all its many and varied forms, is a great interest of mine. Keeping in mind that one person’s “vote splitting” is another person’s “freedom to choose,” I would certainly be open to exploring this, and other, methods of reform to ensure clear majorities in all our electoral races.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Tom Badcock: </b>While studying at university I had some very heated debates on this subject and I trust you will explain to your readers what a ‘ranked’ system is. Our system has flaws but it’s our system. Unfortunately, in a multi party system or in the case where there are many people running for the same position, the majority of voters do not select their party or their councillor. In Israel for example they have a party list system. This is a great example of democracy at its best but it leads to many more elections than we have in our fixed term system. I truly don’t know if the ranked system is the way to go.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Dave Lane: </b>I’m always open to exploring options to improve our democratic system.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Deanne Stapleton: </b>I would like to see the outcome of a ranked ballot system before I would support this reform.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Lionel West: </b>I am in no rush to change the current voting process. I would consider viable options and discuss with citizens. Internet voting may be an option and one that is currently under consideration by the city. I would like to hear what citizens have to say about “term-limit councillors” and full-time councillors. If full-time councillors are employed, it may mean the number of councillors could be reduced.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Cecil Whitten: </b>I am not familiar with the ranked ballot system, I look forward to learning about it. I would support the implementation of electronic voting.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"></div><b>Derek Winsor: </b>I would like to look at a fair system of election that allows all taxpayers to consider themselves for election and not be based on who can put up the most signs and print the most flyers. I would like to see one area in each ward where signs can be posted from all the candidates. Once candidates declare their intention to run, there should be a section on the City of St. John’s website that posts links to candidate’s websites. I think that it would be worth looking at other options of voting procedures.<br /><div><br /></div><br /><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Lou Puddister: </b>I believe in researching best practices from other jurisdictions, studying their merits, and implementing those best suited to our needs. I will take the time to review the proposed ranked ballot system and will post a response to this question on my campaign website.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Sarah Colborne Penney:</b> I am not sure that this is needed here. I would have to fully examine this issue before taking a position on it.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana;"><b><i>Happy with status quo</i></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"></div><b>Paul Sears: </b>A. As a former member of St John’s Electoral Reform Committee I believe there will always be room for improvement in the electoral protocol and process. Having that said I would support having a review every 2 years to review the system and ensure we are maintaining the best approach for our city and citizens. B. No at present, I am content with our current system.<br /><div><br /></div><br /><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><b>Bernard Davis:</b> If our current system is working why would we change it?</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Bruce Tilley:</b> I feel that the current ballot system of mailing is fair but I would rather the old system (that of the Provincial and Federal system).</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><b>Andrew Harvey: </b>I am never against looking at other options, but the current system seems to be sufficient at present. One piece of electoral reform I would like to see is a change in the provincial legislation to allow online voting.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"></div><div style="min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><b>Ron Ellsworth:</b> I have never heard a complaint regarding the current system in place in St. John’s. If residents are satisfied with the electoral system we are using then there is no reason to change it.<br /><br /><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><b></b><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><b></b><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; min-height: 15px;"><br /></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-57390410616491928162013-09-01T21:31:00.000-02:302013-09-02T14:30:36.235-02:30Mapping urban sprawlPopulation density and urban sprawl are big issues in this month's municipal election, talked up by the St. John's Board of Trade in particular. Here are a couple of maps that put the issue in perspective.<br /><br />The first chart shows population density in the St. John's area by census tract (from the 2011 census). The darker the colour, the more dense the population (click on the image to see the legend).<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ks87jGQisR8/UiPWY-DQHzI/AAAAAAAAAjY/tnbh-L6pfmE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-01+at+5.04.51+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="354" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ks87jGQisR8/UiPWY-DQHzI/AAAAAAAAAjY/tnbh-L6pfmE/s640/Screen+Shot+2013-09-01+at+5.04.51+PM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">Population Density - residents per square km</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">Next we see the percent change of population between 2006 and 2011. Dark red means the population is growing quickly. The palest colour is where the population is shrinking. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VCMXidz3oiw/UiPWhUAI16I/AAAAAAAAAjg/oLZeYY1JOHc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-01+at+5.05.25+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="354" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VCMXidz3oiw/UiPWhUAI16I/AAAAAAAAAjg/oLZeYY1JOHc/s640/Screen+Shot+2013-09-01+at+5.05.25+PM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">Percent change in population between 2006 and 2011</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">With the exception of Georgetown and Bannerman Park, the population actually shrank in central St. John's. The big growth is happening in the suburbs and in the satellite communities of Torbay, Paradise, and CBS. People are spreading out.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Source: <a href="http://geodepot.statcan.gc.ca/GeoSearch2011-GeoRecherche2011/GeoSearch2011-GeoRecherche2011.jsp?minX=8955353.84823581&minY=2136803.47992765&maxX=8997874.85663916&maxY=2162685.83286882&LastImage=http://geodepot.statcan.gc.ca/Diss/Output/GeoSearch2011_f6geoimspaz13956669217299.gif&lang=E">Statscan Geosearch</a></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-70745149946181384142013-08-18T22:01:00.000-02:302013-08-18T22:42:03.833-02:30Battery Hotel and public transitThe former Battery Hotel was bought by MUN last year and is likely to be used as a student residence. Students often use public transit and the closest busline to the Battery is line 15 running to MUN campus. It would be good for both Metrobus and MUN to build a couple of shortcut walking trails as indicated below in blue. These would reduce the distance to a bus stop to under half a kilometre and also help transit users avoid the steep climb from Military Road.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xmjf958dyHQ/UhFkaoXbwJI/AAAAAAAAAik/lPUY8TAAS5U/s1600/Battery+access+trails.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xmjf958dyHQ/UhFkaoXbwJI/AAAAAAAAAik/lPUY8TAAS5U/s1600/Battery+access+trails.png" /></a></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-91593128748108563662013-07-29T18:14:00.002-02:302013-07-30T18:15:32.211-02:30More on crime rates****** Updated ********<br /><br />In my <a href="http://theindependent.ca/2013/07/29/is-crime-getting-worse/">column yesterday</a> on crime rates, I noted that recent increases in the violent crime index were mainly caused by increased recording of minor crimes like uttering threats and common assault (meaning assault without a weapon and no bodily harm). As an experiment, I put together a couple modified crime indices that use only serious crimes. These indices use only <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-004-x/2009001/t001-eng.htm">crimes listed by Stats Can</a> as having above average weight for severity and normalized so that 100 is the Canadian average in 2006. Here are the results.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SecKFhykffs/Ufe5Juo07jI/AAAAAAAAAiE/41evJCAhOCg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-30+at+10.30.59+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SecKFhykffs/Ufe5Juo07jI/AAAAAAAAAiE/41evJCAhOCg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-30+at+10.30.59+AM.png" /></a></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><br />Serious violent crime in Canada has fallen about 20 percent since 2006, which is very impressive progress. St. John's has held pretty steady and remains below the Canadian average.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HAlAP-ohEeY/Ufe6W4LU6nI/AAAAAAAAAiU/ipnbeOz1Xdg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-30+at+10.35.51+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HAlAP-ohEeY/Ufe6W4LU6nI/AAAAAAAAAiU/ipnbeOz1Xdg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-30+at+10.35.51+AM.png" /></a></div>Serious nonviolent crimes have fallen about 40% in Canada since 2006 and have fallen about 30% in St. John's. Impressive progress all around.<br /><br />Here are some tables ranking Canadian metropolitan areas in terms of these crime indices.<br /><br /><br /><br />Serious Violent Crime Index<br /><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;">Winnipeg, Manitoba (9,10,47)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">188.7</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Saskatoon, Saskatchewan</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">145.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Regina, Saskatchewan</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">128.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Thunder Bay, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">124.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Vancouver, British Columbia (12,13,14,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">105.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Edmonton, Alberta</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">104.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Halifax, Nova Scotia</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">99.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">MontrÈal, Quebec (38,50,53)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">94.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Toronto, Ontario (33)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">94.2</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Abbotsford-Mission, British Columbia (8,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">81.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Canada (50)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">81.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Kelowna, British Columbia (8,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">77.6</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Sudbury, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">74.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Peterborough, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">68.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Windsor, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">68.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Calgary, Alberta</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">67.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Hamilton, Ontario (33)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">66.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">London, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">65.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario part (6,52)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">65.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b>St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador</b></span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b>64.9</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario/Quebec (6,52)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">63.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">60.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Victoria, British Columbia (28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">59.6</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Saguenay, Quebec (5)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">57.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Quebec part (6)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">57.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Brantford, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">56.6</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">St.Catharines-Niagara, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">54.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Moncton, New Brunswick (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">52.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">QuÈbec, Quebec</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">43</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Barrie, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Sherbrooke, Quebec (32,37)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">42.7</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Kingston, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 197.2px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Trois-RiviËres, Quebec</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 122.0px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">40.2</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><br /><br />Serious Nonviolent Crimes Index<br /><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;">Kelowna, British Columbia (8,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">99.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Brantford, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">98.2</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Regina, Saskatchewan</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">91.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Saskatoon, Saskatchewan</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">88.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Vancouver, British Columbia (12,13,14,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">86.6</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b>St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador</b> </span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">85.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Winnipeg, Manitoba (9,10,47)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">74.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Abbotsford-Mission, British Columbia (8,28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">74.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">London, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">72.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">MontrÈal, Quebec (38,50,53)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">71.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Edmonton, Alberta</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">69.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Sudbury, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">67.7</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Trois-RiviËres, Quebec</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">66</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">St.Catharines-Niagara, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">66</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Moncton, New Brunswick (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">65.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Canada (50)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">64.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Quebec part (6)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">63.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Thunder Bay, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">62.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Windsor, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">62.2</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Calgary, Alberta</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">60.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Saguenay, Quebec (5)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">57.9</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Hamilton, Ontario (33)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">57.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Peterborough, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">55.3</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Victoria, British Columbia (28)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">55</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Saint John, New Brunswick (4,47)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">54.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Sherbrooke, Quebec (32,37)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">53.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Halifax, Nova Scotia</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">52.5</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ontario</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">51</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario/Quebec (6,52)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">49.6</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Kingston, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">47.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">QuÈbec, Quebec</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">46.7</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Barrie, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">46.1</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario part (6,52)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">44.8</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Guelph, Ontario (8)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">41.4</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 210.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue';"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Toronto, Ontario (33)</span></div></td><td style="border-color: #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6 #d6d6d6; border-style: solid; border-width: 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px 0.2px; height: 12.2px; padding: 1.0px 2.0px 1.0px 2.0px; width: 35.1px;" valign="top"><div style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; text-align: right;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;">38.6</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><br /><br /><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-33822726357693688902013-07-27T18:06:00.000-02:302013-07-28T16:18:17.125-02:30Muskrat Reckoning<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FpV0ep1jAyA/UfQuGpqVetI/AAAAAAAABtw/b9w9j2UbDZg/s1600/photo_2322825_resize.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FpV0ep1jAyA/UfQuGpqVetI/AAAAAAAABtw/b9w9j2UbDZg/s200/photo_2322825_resize.jpg" width="200" /></a>You may be sick of hearing about the Muskrat by now. For the last year it has dominated the political discourse and is likely to continue to cast a shadow for some time (may as well resign yourself to that).<br /><br />This most recent round of Muskrat folly centers on a court case by Hydro Quebec and a further twist in the tale from Nova Scotia. Good theater, but it's hard not to wonder if the curtain should have already come down.<br /><br />What would have been the outcome had the province's public utilities board been allowed to do its job and review the project before it was sanctioned? What outcome had government listened to <a href="http://occupynl.ca/search/label/muskrat%20falls">voices of protest and opposition</a>? What need is there for such intransigence on the part of government if pitfalls have apparently gone unidentified? These are the most troubling questions, beyond even specific concerns raised from various perspectives.<br /><br />No matter how legitimate concerns are explained away, it is increasingly difficult for people to be confident. The evolution of the project has produced a bottoming out of popular support for the government and the premier, creating an atmosphere where many feel it is no longer possible to <a href="http://www.ibelieveinthepowerofnl.ca/who-we-are/">simply believe</a>. This sets the stage for a reckoning, one that has the potential to sweep government from office and bring Muskrat to a halt, which even for some of the project's soft supporters would now come as a welcome relief.<br /><br />Otherwise, you have to practice ever more subtle feats of logical gymnastics in order to say, I support the Muskrat. Because now, when people say they support Muskrat, what they really mean is that they believe in the technical capacity of hydro dams to produce electricity, for who can speak to other outcomes of a project whose architects appear unaware of so many variables. It begins to look as though without a reckoning, if the government is allowed to continue the project and serve out its mandate, we should prepare to get what they deserve.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WQ50rBKxVgQ/UfQs1C0AT0I/AAAAAAAABtc/KbEL7qo7F0k/s1600/duke_1.JPG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="267" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WQ50rBKxVgQ/UfQs1C0AT0I/AAAAAAAABtc/KbEL7qo7F0k/s400/duke_1.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>Jonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07415555531504843017noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-37990072537457370172013-07-24T08:30:00.000-02:302013-07-24T14:33:52.685-02:30A Proud Labradorian's response to Dunderdale<div class="tr_bq">Premier Dunderdale's <a href="http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=36609&latest=1">recent comments</a> about the Nalcor - Hydro-Quebec dispute provoked a passionate response from a proud Labradorian. Update: here is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxP2TCAzYc">a video recording of Dunderdale's remark</a>.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AEG45U7c0xs/Ue-uA-5mrBI/AAAAAAAAAf4/41v9CrydtIc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-24+at+8.04.45+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AEG45U7c0xs/Ue-uA-5mrBI/AAAAAAAAAf4/41v9CrydtIc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-24+at+8.04.45+AM.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />***** update *****<br /><br />I've cut and pasted the comment so it is accessible to search engines.<br /><blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">"Dunderdale says Quebec doesn't believe that Newfoundland owns Labrador, saying it all goes back to the boundary dispute."</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">good to know we are owned in the Big Land..we always knew we were just a resource warehouse for Nfld governments..something so insulting and sickening when the leader actually talks in the language of possessioon...not a response of NL working together on a project..but simply Nfld owns Labrador and will do whatever it wants to our Big Land..yeah thats about how history keeps showing it to.</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">Now my question is will the leaders of Labrador roll over and be owned...will the people demand some respect and finally begin to get its independence..or will everyone have an opinion but no one will take any action...time will tell.</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">Let's not forget that only last week Nunatsiavut government filed suit against NL government for not respecting their land claim rights...</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">What will be the straw to break the camels back I wonder...as each project devastates our land more and we are continually given nothing but a few jobs</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;"><a href="http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=36609&latest=1" rel="nofollow nofollow" style="color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://www.vocm.com/<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=36609&l<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>atest=1</a></span></blockquote><br /><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-37150688823092624752013-07-23T08:08:00.001-02:302013-08-28T02:22:38.053-02:30Q&A with Ward 2 candidates for St. John's City Council<br />********* updated *********<br /><br />The following question was posed and answered in the Facebook group <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/stjohns2013/">St. John's Municipal Elections 2013</a>. If you would like to participate in future discussion, you are more than welcome to join in.<br /><br /><br />Q: <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Question for Ward 2 candidates </span><a data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/user.php?id=100005647802098&extragetparams=%7B%22directed_target_id%22%3A466945353331697%7D" href="https://www.facebook.com/jonathan.galgay?directed_target_id=466945353331697" style="background-color: white; color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;">Jonathan Galgay</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">, </span><a data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/user.php?id=100004000070332&extragetparams=%7B%22directed_target_id%22%3A466945353331697%7D" href="https://www.facebook.com/andrew.harvey.773776?directed_target_id=466945353331697" style="background-color: white; color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;">Andrew Harvey</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">, </span><a aria-haspopup="true" aria-owns="js_49" data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/user.php?id=540290244&extragetparams=%7B%22directed_target_id%22%3A466945353331697%7D" href="https://www.facebook.com/simonlono?directed_target_id=466945353331697" id="js_50" style="background-color: white; color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;">Simon Lono</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">.</span><br /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">This <a href="http://www.stjohns.ca/publications/metrobus-transit-study">Metrobus transit study</a> recommends upgrading route 10 (which joins Downtown to MUN/HSC/Avalon Mall) to provide buses every 15 minutes during peak hours. Would you support this? Would you push for this?</span><br /><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Andrew Harvey's answer: </span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">Absolutely. I think that far too often the city pays thousands of dollars on studies which sit on a shelf and are never acted on. There are also many other issues which need to be addressed with Metrobus but that would be a good start.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;"> </span></blockquote><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Jonathan Galgay's answer: </span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">I would support any recommendation which increases bussing for those who require efficient and reliable transportation, including the example you provided such as route 10.</span></blockquote><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Simon Lono's answer: </span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[0]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[0].[0]">I looked at the report and there are great things in it. Public transit is the kind of issue that really should be evidence/data based and it looks like that’s this report has done. It’s been a little while since I relied on Metrobus to get around (u</span></span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[0]">sed it much more when my kids were younger) but in general the report jibes with what I recall and what I’ve been hearing more recently.</span></span></span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><br data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[2]" /></span></span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[3]">Should there be better, more and regular connections between Downtown to MUN/HSC/Avalon Mall (Route 10)? I’m not sure what route would have a higher demand than that one. I’d like to see what reasons Metrobus would have for NOT doing that because it seems to me pretty obvious that’s a heavily used route that many more would use if it ran at more convenient times.</span></span></span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><br data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[5]" /></span></span><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[6]">One item that needs to be explored in more detail is the use of variable sized bus fleet. Why do all the busses have to be large, standard-sized, even during low traffic times? Why can’t we use smaller busses during low traffic times but still keep up the frequency schedule instead of a standard bus on a once in a blue moon schedule?</span></span></span></blockquote><div><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Scott Fitzgerald's answer:</span> <span data-reactid=".r[5bn1b].[1][4][1]{comment707338242625739_707363855956511}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][1]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"> </span><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" data-reactid=".r[5bn1b].[1][4][1]{comment707338242625739_707363855956511}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[5bn1b].[1][4][1]{comment707338242625739_707363855956511}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0]"><span data-reactid=".r[5bn1b].[1][4][1]{comment707338242625739_707363855956511}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[0]">I would definitely support improving the Metrobus services to the downtown. Ultimately we have to encourage fewer cars in the downtown if we ever hope to tackle the parking problem and make this a more livable city. Without a public transit system that people can depend on no one is going to opt for leaving the car at home.</span></span></span></blockquote><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3]" style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0]"><span data-reactid=".r[2vtym].[1][4][1]{comment683678611658369_684915748201322}.[0].[right].[0].[left].[0].[0].[0][2].[0].[3].[0].[6]"><br /></span></span></span></div><div>It was also revealed in discussion that one of the candidates, Jonathan Galgay, lives in the neighbourhood of Airport Heights and not in Ward 2. I wrote to him to confirm this and received the following reply.</div><div><br /></div><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;">Jonathan Galgay: </span><span style="background-color: #edeff4; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">As indicated on my web site, I live on Cherokee Drive which is in the east end of the City, the neighbourhood of Roncalli Estates. My wife and I moved to this neighbourhood a few years ago after living on Hamilton Ave, where my mother currently resides. I was raised and educated in Ward 2, and my father operated a business there for over 40 years until his death a few years ago. I would like to point out that there is no requirement for any member of City Council, or MHA to reside in their constituency. Like many others, Councillor Frank Galgay resided outside Ward 2 for the 16 years he represented the Ward. Where one lays their head at night should not be a determining factor in their ability to represent the best interests of residents.</span></blockquote><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-54559069870041798792013-07-17T23:37:00.000-02:302013-07-18T07:40:15.363-02:30Let's bridge the gap between the city and Confederation Building<br />I went for a walk along the beautiful Rennie's River trail today and I had an idea: why not build a pedestrian bridge where the river meets Prince Philip Drive? See the map with the trail outlined in white and the bridge drawn in brown.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GUS9uUY4zXk/UedEjh-gW5I/AAAAAAAAAfA/eRIGiAvK0QM/s1600/Rennie+river+bridge.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="335" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GUS9uUY4zXk/UedEjh-gW5I/AAAAAAAAAfA/eRIGiAvK0QM/s400/Rennie+river+bridge.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It wouldn't cost much and would provide a convenient (and very pretty) walking route between the Confederation Building and Elizabeth Avenue. This idea might appeal to city councillors promoting a more walkable city and provincial politicians looking for ways to "engage the public" since the Confederation Building is a hassle to reach without a car. It might even take a few cars off the road.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The only obvious problem I can see is that people crossing Prince Philip could disrupt car traffic, though in my experience it is usually easy to cross during breaks in the traffic by using the median. What do you think?</span>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-690942969139975982013-07-10T17:19:00.004-02:302013-07-10T20:02:09.671-02:30Tuition rates and geography<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'm playing around with some numbers to better understand what level of tuition is appropriate at Memorial University. There are lots of ways to approach the question. Here is one.</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In an earlier post I cited a Stats Can paper titled "<b><i><a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/Statcan/11F0019MIE/11F0019MIE2002191.pdf">Too far to go on? Distance to school and university participation</a>"</i></b>. From the abstract:</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"This study assesses the role of geographic distance to school in the probability of attending university shortly after high school graduation. Students who grow up near a university can save on costs by staying home to attend the local university, and thus may be more likely to attend. [....] After controlling for family income, parental education, and other factors associated with university participation, students living “out-of-commuting distance” are far less likely to attend than students living “within commuting distance” are."</span></i></blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The study finds that high school grads who live more than 40 km from a university are only 60% as likely to attend university as someone who lives closer. Distance seems to be especially important for low income families: a low income student is three times more likely to attend university if she lives near a university than if she lives more than 80 km away.</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When the study was done in 1996, 67% of Canadians lived within 40 km of a university, compared to only 43% of NLers. If distance was the only factor affecting participation in university, then we would expect NLers to attend at only 87% the rate of most Canadians.</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now suppose we want to lift accessibility in NL to the Canadian average. One way would be to establish new university campuses. Unfortunately, there is no obvious place to put them. There are already MUN campuses in St. John's and in Corner Brook. The next most reasonable population centres are probably Bay Roberts or Grand Falls, but they are both too small to justify the investment.</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An alternative is to offer low tuition at the existing campuses. How low? Studies I <a href="http://occupynl.ca/2013/07/tuition-rates-and-university.html">cited here</a> estimate that lowering tuition by $1000 will increase enrollment by 3%. Thus to compensate for distance, we would need to set tuition about $1000 x (100% - 87%)/ 3% = $4333 dollars per year cheaper than the Canadian average. This is very close to the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/tuition-canada/">current difference</a> between tuition in NL and tuition in Ontario. Food for thought.</span><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-69227765796374178082013-07-08T09:57:00.000-02:302013-07-10T20:21:35.325-02:30A (very) quick response to SRBP<br /><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">A (very) quick response to this <a href="http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2013/07/some-inconvenient-truths-goring-some.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheSirRobertBondPapers+(The+Sir+Robert+Bond+Papers)">SRBP post </a>before I go out of town.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Ed seems not to have read <a href="http://occupynl.ca/2013/07/tuition-rates-and-university.html">my previous post</a> very carefully, because he hasn't really responded to the methodological problems with the FCPP study he quoted. Instead he links to <a href="http://www.iedm.org/files/universites_en.pdf">another study</a> by Institute Economique de Montreal (IEM) that uses the same methodology! The IEM report also explicitly says: </div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><blockquote class="tr_bq">"These results obviously do not mean that increasing tuition fees in a given province will lead to a rise in enrolment rates, but they do suggest that the opposite cannot be maintained either, namely, that higher fees will necessarily reduce enrolment rates."</blockquote><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /><a name='more'></a><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">I do not dispute this conclusion. All that these two reports demonstrate is the obvious fact that tuition rates are not the sole or dominant factor in determining university enrolment. This is consistent with the <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/Statcan/11F0019MIE/11F0019MIE2002191.pdf">Stats Can report</a> I referenced on Saturday, that geography plays an very important role ( e.g. Nova Scotia has high enrolment rates in part because it has universities scattered all over the place near where people live) as well as many other factors.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">I also agree (and said explicitly in the previous post) that the effect of tuition increases is fairly small (i.e. that demand is inelastic). The point I am trying to make is that if we are going to have an intelligent debate about the cost and benefits of maintaining low levels of tuition, we shouldn't pretend that the costs are zero. Both the FCPP study and the IEM study not well designed to measure this cost and in fact are almost laughably primitive in their methods. I can't help but suspect that these studies were chosen not for the quality of their analysis, but because they reach the desired conclusion.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">One nice thing about the IEM report is that it does include a chart showing how enrolment has varied through time. It shows that the large tuition increases in Ontario in the '90s were associated with a decline in enrolment <i>from trend</i>. Indeed, enrolment levels seem to have been set back about five years relative to the underlying trend of increasing enrolments. Does this have nothing to do with the tuition hike? </div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The one sophisticated study that SRBP links to did find that large increases in tuition for professional degrees lead to drops in enrolment, a result he calls "<span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">in a penetrating insight into the obvious</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> ". </span>Why he thinks that this is obvious but that smaller tuition increases would not affect enrolment is unclear.</div>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-29277776270770785422013-07-06T13:55:00.000-02:302013-07-10T20:21:16.259-02:30Tuition Rates and University Participation: a rebuttal<br />A <a href="http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2013/07/the-price-of-subsidy-mun-tuition.html#more">recent post</a> on the popular provincial politics blog The Sir Robert Bond Papers strongly implies (but does not explicitly state) that raising university tuition has no effect on levels of university participation.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">"Now for all those who believe that lower tuition fees allow more people to go to university guess again. There’s actually evidence that low tuition fees won’t make it easier for promising students from low income families to attend university."</span></blockquote>In support of this view, he cites <a href="http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/3898">a paper</a> from the <a href="http://www.fcpp.org/">Frontier Centre for Public Policy</a>. This paper turns out to be seriously flawed.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />To begin with the superficial, there are clear signs that the paper was written from a partisan political point of view. The first sentence in the introduction reads<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"<span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11pt;">As surely as night follows day, government announcements that university tuition fees will be permitted to rise are immediately followed by howls of condemnation from student organizations.</span><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11pt;"> </span>"</blockquote>which is rather dismissive of student concerns. Moreover, the Frontier Centre for Public Policy clearly promotes a right-wing, small government political agenda as can be seen by this note on <a href="http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/294">the optimum size of government</a>. But let us look beyond the obvious partisan bias and try to evaluate the report on it's merits.<br /><br />The methods used in the report are quite simplistic and easily understood by people with little knowledge of statistics. All they do is measure the correlation between cost of tuition and university participation in Canadian provinces. Here is a scatterplot from the study, along with the "line of best fit".<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mkgyTkV1xxI/UdgYGNuZivI/AAAAAAAAAeg/nU3JSfIn7HQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-06+at+10.43.29+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mkgyTkV1xxI/UdgYGNuZivI/AAAAAAAAAeg/nU3JSfIn7HQ/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-07-06+at+10.43.29+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>What this chart shows is that provinces with higher tuition have slightly higher rates of university participation than those with lower tuition. There is a similar chart showing that participation rates for low income people is higher in provinces with high tuition.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kwldv2_7cJk/UdgZHhAdq9I/AAAAAAAAAew/96oHDuSTdpg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-06+at+10.46.56+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kwldv2_7cJk/UdgZHhAdq9I/AAAAAAAAAew/96oHDuSTdpg/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-07-06+at+10.46.56+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />That is as far as the statistical analysis goes. There is no consideration of how tuition and participation have varied through time, there is no effort to account for differences in the education systems between provinces (such as the fact that Quebec has two free years of CEGEP), no effort to work out the direction of causation (do provinces set tuition rates low because participation rates are low?), no effort to account for confounding variables at all. There is basically nothing except these two charts.<br /><br />Despite the dismissive tone in the introduction, even the authors of the study are not so brazen or deluded to claim that this data demonstrates that raising tuition has no effect on participation. From the discussion section:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><div class="column"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'; font-size: 11.000000pt;">"What conclusions can and cannot be drawn from this data? This evidence does not demonstrate that tuition fees have no impact on university participation rates, either in general or for students from low- income families. Many factors influence university participation, and we examined only the correlation between tuition levels and university participation. To be sure, </span><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11pt;">it is possible that if Manitoba, Quebec and Newfoundland had higher tuition fees, the gap between those provinces and provinces such as Ontario and Nova Scotia in terms of low-income participation, would be even larger."</span></div></blockquote>They offer some speculation for why tuition levels do not correlate with participation, but they don't bother citing any research to back it up, so I will.<br /><br />This <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/Statcan/11F0019MIE/11F0019MIE2002191.pdf">Statistics Canada study</a> (done by actual statisticians using statistics) found that young people who live within 40 km of a university are 50% more likely to attend university. Young people from low income families living within 40 km of a university are <i><b>four times</b></i> more likely to attend university than those more than 80 km away. This makes a lot of sense, because it is a lot cheaper to attend university if you can live with your parents rather than renting an apartment. Only two fifths of Newfoundlanders live within 40 km of a university compared to two thirds of all Canadians, so geography is a much more significant obstacle for university participation in this province than elsewhere. Keeping tuition low helps compensate for our geography.<br /><br />Another well known fact found in the Stats Can study is that children of parents who went to university are much more likely to attend university than children of parents who did not. The boomer generation in NL have significantly lower levels of education than Canadian boomers, so all else being equal we should expect lower participation rates in NL.<br /><br />There are several econometric studies that try to measure the effect of tuition hikes on university participation. A <a href="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2010/02/how-increasing-tuition-fees-can-increase-university-participation-rates.html">summary of one study</a> posted by Canadian economist Stephen Gordon (a prominent <i>supporter</i> of tuition hikes), estimates that raising tuition by $1000 per year reduces participation by about 3%. <a href="http://cee.lse.ac.uk/ceedps/ceedp126.pdf">A study</a> from the UK found that raising tuition by <span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt;">£</span>1000 reduces participation by 4%. I did not cherry pick these studies; they were the first ones I found using a google search.<br /><br />It is fair to say that these effects are fairly small and one can reasonable argue that they aren't worth the cost to the taxpayer. Stephen Gordon (and, I believe, Ed Hollett) advocates raising tuition and using some of the revenue to provide financial support to low-income students, a policy that makes a lot of sense to me. I also believe that the provincial government has a serious structural budget deficit and that both program cuts and tax increases will be necessary to deal with it. But crappy studies from right-wing think tanks are not a useful contribution to this public policy debate.<br /><br />********* Updates **********<br /><br />A nice <a href="http://www.hanoverresearch.com/2012/06/tuition-elasticity-student-responsiveness-to-tuition-increases/">blog post</a> listing several US studies estimating the link between tuition increases and enrolment decline. The median estimate is that a $1000 tuition hike corresponds to a 5% drop in enrolment.<br /><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-17919741385314744542013-07-04T09:28:00.000-02:302013-07-04T10:24:40.889-02:30More on the unemployment rates of youths and seniorsIn a recent <a href="http://occupynl.ca/2013/06/employment-boom-leaving-older-workers.html">post</a> and <a href="http://theindependent.ca/2013/06/28/older-workers-have-fallen-behind-in-the-boom/">Indy column</a> I presented evidence that younger workers have fared much better in the NL economic boom than older workers. The more I look at the data, the more amazed I get. What is happening in NL today is in many ways unprecedented in recent Canadian history.<br /><br />For example, consider youth unemployment. The unemployment rate for youth (aged 15-24) has always been high, because young people have little work experience and are trying to break into the workforce for the first time. Over the last 40 years, the youth unemployment rate in Canada has been 5% to 12% higher than the unemployment rate for people over 55. There has not been a single year in any province in which this difference has fallen to less than 2.5%.<br /><br />Until now.<br /><br />The following chart shows the difference in provincial unemployment rate between people aged 15-24 and people over 55. The blue line in Newfoundland and Labrador and every other province is green.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WGF8Xemgwy8/UdVX9AwkFHI/AAAAAAAAAeQ/CEcBD6j7PsI/s350/Screen+Shot+2013-07-04+at+8.39.18+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WGF8Xemgwy8/UdVX9AwkFHI/AAAAAAAAAeQ/CEcBD6j7PsI/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-07-04+at+8.39.18+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">During the 25 years from 1976 to 2000, NL had the largest difference in Canada. Today it is the lowest in Canada. In fact, the difference in the first half of 2013 is the lowest recorded in any province in 40 years! If this trend continues, the youth unemployment in NL will fall below that for people 55+ by next year, for the first time in recent Canadian history.</div><br />tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-66328413815043573112013-06-24T11:55:00.000-02:302013-07-03T21:12:42.088-02:30Deer Lake Fracking Awareness Seminar Raises Difficult Questions for Black Spruce<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-CA</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> 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Name="TOC Heading"/> </w:LatentStyles></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]><style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style><![endif]--> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i>From the 4 O'clock Whistle</i></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thirty five people showed up to a fracking awareness seminar in Deer Lake on the 19<sup>th</sup>of June at the Hodder Memorial Stadium. Entitled “Facts on Fracking” the seminar presented a wide array of information on the history of the process and what is known about its potential effects. As those present learned, while some of the basic technology of fracking has been around for quite some time, slick water horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a relatively new phenomenon. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example when companies assert that they have been conducting hydraulic fracturing since the 1940’s they are referring to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">vertical </i>hydraulic fracturing. Horizontal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">slickwater</i>“fracking,” by contrast, can be traced back to as early as 2002. Since much of the fracking fluid, which contains a complex mixture of chemicals (some of which are known to be carcinogenic or to have other health effects) remains underground after the process, the potential area affected by seepage into aquifers and towards the surface is greatly increased during horizontal fracturing. The fracturing could extend out as much as three kilometers, if not more, horizontally from each drill site in multiple directions, and one key problem is trying to control the fractures during the process. Several countries and states currently have moratoriums on fracking awaiting more information, as does the province of Quebec, and in many others there are growing demands for the institution of moratoriums.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Chicken Little?</span></b></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /><a name='more'></a><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The presenters wanted to make it clear this seminar was not a case of claiming the “sky was falling,” instead stating that the potential damage of hydraulic fracturing, should it take place on the West Coast, could happen over many years. Chief among their concerns was protecting future generations. That said some of the evidence presented is certainly worrying in terms of the immediate future as well. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dr. Ian Simpson, one of the presenters at the seminar, gave a particularly insightful account of the potential health problems associated with the process (an account based upon research of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">peer-reviewed</i>literature). The fracking fluid is itself a source of concern (the exact chemicals added are often company secrets), as is the large amount of methane and other chemicals that would be released into the air by each fracking site; sinus problems, nasal irritation, eye burn and throat irritation are among the statistically significant symptoms reported near fracking sites in one study cited by Dr. Simpson.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Black Spruce: Disciplined Communication? </span></b></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seminar, open to all, came just after news that Black Spruce Exploration Corp., one of the companies hoping to undertake fracking on the West Coast, had essentially acquired Deer Lake Oil and Gas – the latest in several expansions by the company [The Western Star, “Deer Lake Oil and Gas acquired by Black Spruce Energy,” June 17, 2013]. David Murray, CEO of Black Spruce has been making many extensive promises, we learned, to residents along the West Coast as of late too, which may not be surprising as it appears he has invested - rather extensively - in the success of fracking here. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Western Star article from last month made it clear Mr. Murray sees Newfoundland in terms of oil potential as being like North Dakota. According to the article he seemed to indicate that the population of North Dakota had nearly doubled in the last 10 years and that the unemployment rate had dropped from 9.8% to just 3% [The Western Star, “Oil company making a difference with presentations: Murray,” May 31, 2013]. A comment made by a reader under the online copy of that article suggested that there may be a discrepancy in the information presented, and a quick scan of census data from the U.S. does appear to contradict the information in the article. First, the current estimated population of North Dakota (as of 2012) is 699,628, it was 642,200 in 2000 and it was</span> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">638,800 in 1990 – so one fails to see how it has almost doubled [United States Census Bureau]. Further the unemployment rate is currently 3.2% in North Dakota and hasn’t been above 4.2% since 2000. In fact since 1980 the highest unemployment there has been was in 1983 at 6.8%, which doesn’t seem to provide real evidence for the idea of horizontal hydraulic fracturing as a great source of employment growth for a local population [statistics from United States Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics].</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Murray’s statistics come across as particularly troubling given his recent assertion that the Black Spruce board and management team had previously worked on drilling programs in Colorado, Texas, Pennsylvania and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">North Dakota</i> [The Western Star “Black Spruce takes the reins in western N.L.” June 19, 2013]. It may be of interest for readers to take a look at the past unemployment rates – if this is indeed Mr. Murray’s measure of success for fracking – of some of the other states in which the Black Spruce team has worked on drilling programs. As of January 2002, around the time slickwater horizontal fracturing came onto the scene as a technology, the unemployment rates of Colorado, Texas, and Pennsylvania were 5.7%, 6.1% and 5.5% respectively. As of January 2013 they were 7.3%, 6.3% and 8.2% respectively [United States Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics]. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Black Spruce team’s history is also interesting given the many worrying complaints, news pieces, and peer-reviewed articles, now emerging about the health impacts of fracking technology coming from these very same states [for example see: Ellen Cantarow “Fracking Ourselves to Death in Pennsylvania,” May 2, 2013].</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seminar in Deer Lake also addressed the issue of job creation, but presented evidence that most of the jobs created during fracking operations would probably go to specialists brought into the Province from elsewhere on a temporary basis, and would not be long term, something there <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">is</i>evidence to suggest [see for instance Barth, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">New Solutions, </i>Vol. 23(1) 85-101, 2013]. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meanwhile the chairman of Black Spruce’s partner company, Shoal Point Energy’s Davidson Kelly, has gained negative attention recently after a CBC article cited the following quote from a report by Australian Commissioner</span> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Terence Cole, a report tabled in the Australian Parliament;</span> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“On the evidence before me, Mr. Davidson Kelly is a thoroughly disreputable man with no commercial morality.” [CBC News, “Fracking firm chairman cited for role in UN-Iraq scandal,” June 11, 2013].<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Has Fracking Been Conducted Safely in Canada?</span></b></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seminar also challenged claims that fracking has occurred elsewhere in Canada without any local water supply damage, something Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources president, Kevin Heffernan, recently implied in the above coverage from the Western Star [June 19, 2013]. In fact the National Farmers Union of Alberta asked in 2012 for a moratorium on fracking due to firsthand accounts of water contamination, accounts that rarely see the light of day because, as stated on the NFU website by member Jan Slomp: “the oil and gas companies usually force farmers to sign confidentiality agreements in return for replacement of their water wells” [NFU Website: “Hydraulic Fracking a Danger to Water, Food, Farmland: NFU Calls For Moratorium”]. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given current research being undertaken into water contamination across Canada, and the cases only now coming to light (both in Canada and in several U.S. states), it would definitely appear highly premature for anyone to suggest that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">no </i>contamination of water supplies has taken place.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">General Impressions</span></b></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The question of whether or not to proceed with fracking is a troubling one: it may be that further regulations are needed, or it may very well be that fracking is simply an undertaking not worth the detriments it creates. One way or the other more information is being uncovered about this relatively new process – information and peer-reviewed studies the companies themselves don’t seem to want to discuss – or are surprisingly un-aware of.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The overall feeling of the presentation? While many were concerned, those who have concerns are certainly open to a discussion of both the pros and cons of fracking. Graham Oliver, another presenter, wanted to make it clear to the audience during the question and answer period at the end that they should feel free to voice any questions or make any statements they wanted, whether in support of or against fracking. “We accept all opinions here and welcome them” he said. Indeed sheets of paper with links to online copies of the key sources used in the health portion of the seminar were handed out, and audience members were encouraged to further research the subject and come to their own conclusions. The presentation, in short, was not just about presenting “the facts,” it was about letting people know <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">where</i> those facts are coming from, and there was general atmosphere of free speech and dialog.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div></div>Robert Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16338499798774129267noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-21047045098664987372013-06-23T21:53:00.002-02:302013-07-03T21:13:55.317-02:30Investing in Higher EducationThe provincial government is doing a review of postsecondary education (PSE) this year, hoping to find ways to save money and reduce the deficit. The PCs have greatly increased spending on PSE since coming to power in 2003 and tuition at MUN is the lowest Canada outside of Quebec, so there is definitely room for cuts. But is cutting PSE smart policy?<br /><br />Here are a couple of charts showing the unemployment rate according to level of education for people aged 25 to 44. The first one is for Canada and the second is for Newfoundland and Labrador.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UPIk5Fk0UBk/UceND54TOUI/AAAAAAAAAaE/CzgK2I7ZJ68/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-06-23+at+9.34.05+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="317" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UPIk5Fk0UBk/UceND54TOUI/AAAAAAAAAaE/CzgK2I7ZJ68/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-06-23+at+9.34.05+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qHhQbgfS0wY/UceNIPkWB2I/AAAAAAAAAaM/_TAZzRb7OCs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-06-23+at+9.33.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="333" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qHhQbgfS0wY/UceNIPkWB2I/AAAAAAAAAaM/_TAZzRb7OCs/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-06-23+at+9.33.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><a name='more'></a><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The first thing that pops out is that lines on the Canadian chart are much closer together. In the rest of Canada, the difference in unemployment rate between high school graduates and university graduates is only 2% (7 and 5 respectively). In Newfoundland & Labrador the difference is 12%! That means that having a university degree makes <b>six times</b> as big a difference in NL as it does in the rest of Canada.<br /><br />We also see that a postsecondary diploma or certificate reduces the unemployment rate by about 5% in NL compared to about 2% in the rest of Canada; and some postsecondary is better than nothing in NL, while in the rest of Canada you are better off with no PSE than doing some PSE and not graduating.<br /><br />All of this indicates that postsecondary education (PSE) is much more valued by the NL labour market than by the Canadian one. Credit to the PC government for strongly investing in PSE and keeping tuition low. Hopefully they remember the value of this investment in Budget 2014.<br /><br />*************<br /><br />Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM <a href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=2820004&paSer=&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=-1&tabMode=dataTable&csid=">282-0004</a>tbairdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13414898326419501937noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3685548281248485447.post-65067987804608873022013-06-21T13:10:00.000-02:302013-06-27T08:37:36.190-02:30The Great Canadian Mask Ban<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NX0mOY6Xj_k/UcRZoHSV2YI/AAAAAAAABs0/ywO0oAJeGQs/s1600/The-Comedy-and-Tragedy-Masks-acting-204463_489_381.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NX0mOY6Xj_k/UcRZoHSV2YI/AAAAAAAABs0/ywO0oAJeGQs/s200/The-Comedy-and-Tragedy-Masks-acting-204463_489_381.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>The Great Canadian Mask Ban came into effect the other day. The law doesn't mean it's illegal to mask up at a protest. But the instant the protest has been declared an illegal assembly (once the cops read the riot act) the law comes into effect. At that point, if you don't take off your mask -- bam! -- huge fines and a maximum of ten years in the slammer.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><br />A joke, right? It is laughable, both in terms of the sadistic punishment but also in that it is impossible to enforce and must be understood by police as a discretionary law. However, the purpose of the law is not such that it needs to be enforced by the police, as the hope is that protesters will self-police by demanding that comrades unmask. The law is really a divide and conquer tactic, attempting to isolate and marginalize "radical" elements of the protest. Grab teams will then, presumably, be better able to select targets and demonstrations will be less likely to protect the "radical" elements. It is also functional if the police are able to catch a comrade who engaged in a little of the smashy-smashy, as an extra charge to add on. Along these lines is how the authorities hope the police will strategically employ this law.<br /><br />But there are a few problems with this strategy and the law may not have the desired effect. The most apparent reason is that police will not always exercise astute discretion. They will arrest people in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchopanda">panda costumes and mascots</a>. They will arrest people <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R_FrYWdgIA">wearing masks and nothing else</a>. As with everything to do with protest, people will get creative and turn arrests into a PR nightmare for the authorities. It's only a matter of time before you see photos of a group of mimes being tackled by police. And what about the comrades with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_Puppet_Theater">enormous puppets</a>? Do those count as masks too? Do the authorities even know what a mask is?<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HOrhTJmygo0/UcRZnx26JRI/AAAAAAAABs4/4lC9mDW1o_s/s1600/vlcsnap_2012_09_17_18h25m19s22_large.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HOrhTJmygo0/UcRZnx26JRI/AAAAAAAABs4/4lC9mDW1o_s/s400/vlcsnap_2012_09_17_18h25m19s22_large.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />Another problem for the authorities is that masking up was not necessarily a "radical" thing to do. Lots of people mask up for the first time after seeing police wearing masks doing violence to unmasked, otherwise peaceful protesters. But now, comrades who otherwise masked up to feel protected from the police will be all the more likely to engage in a bit of the smashy-smashy, because, well, if you're looking at a decade in jail you'll want it to be worth it. Beyond this, arrests may require the use of excessive force, since protesters may fight tooth and nail to keep from being arrested. Also, if lots of people see that the masked element of a demonstration ignores the law and there are no consequences (since the law cannot be enforced), it becomes even more symbolic as an act of resistance, and may for that reason be all the more likely to spread to more "moderate" elements.<br /><br />Overall, the law seems like another blunt tool of authority. The fuzzy use value of the law for police, the way protesters will use the law to their own purpose, and a general misunderstanding of protest culture mean that the law is destined to backfire. It's always going to be that way when authority, out of fear, uses the justice system to issue threats to people instead of listening to their legitimate demands.<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2ifK9lqNPVA" width="420"></iframe></div>Jonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07415555531504843017noreply@blogger.com1